How Coach Got Knocked Off

It is possible that Coach brought a lot of it on themselves with the number of outlet stores and their shoes in 800 locations, as detailed on their conference call. As a fellow Stockpickr indicated, the Gucci's and the LV's and the Diors have waiting lists -- the days of someone yearning for a Coach are simply over.

On the conference call Oct. 23, Coach indicated that "the recent deceleration in traffic and moderation in category growth from the torrid 20% growth levels we have seen since 2003 to a rate closer to 10% this fall has led us to be more conservative in our outlook."

CEO Lew Frankfort indicated that "when we look at our stats in terms of our ongoing attitude consumer research from an attitude perspective, the Coach consumer has never been more vibrant than she is today. She has actually the highest levels of metrics in terms of her belief and confidence in Coach relative to ranking Coach as one of her favorite brands, excellent value, a brand that she trusts, a brand that she would recommend. So, we believe both the Coach consumer and more generally, the high-end consumer is still out there and she spends when she shops."

Well, Coach has its research. I give you the purseblog.com, whose 78,500 "Shallow Obsessing, Strongly Encouraged" members make it the No. 1 community for handbag lovers and shoulder-fashion fetishists.

One poster claimed to have seen three times as many knock-offs in the last month, with the other posters all agreeing. Another poster indicated that she heard some ladies talking, and they said that "Coach was the poor person's Louis Vuitton" and mentioned that Coach is not considered "designer." For whatever that's worth.

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