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Asia: China Rallies Alone

The Chinese gains have defied most analysts this week as they expected China's 17th Party Congress to destabilize domestic trading. But the Congress is focused on the agricultural market, environmental issues, financial markets and corruption this year, says ABN Amro's Boutet.

"Analysts forecasts on China are always bad. They always underestimate the growth for the companies and run after it," says Boutet. "In '06 they were expecting 5% growth for earnings. Finally the companies came out with 30% growth. They were expecting 10% this year, but Hong Kong listed companies published 32%, and Chinese 'A' shares published 70% for the first half of 2007."

Another example can be found in U.S.-traded ETFs, where the iShares MSCI Emerging Market (EEM), iShares Hong Kong (EWH) and the iShares/FTSE Xinhua (FXI) have grown much faster than analysts' forecasts this year.

"Valuations are becoming a bit stretched, but we know that analysts are lagging the growth. As a fund manager, I cannot close my eyes anymore on this aspect," she adds.
Daniel M. Harrison is a business journalist specialising in European and emerging markets, in particular Asia. He has an MBA from BI, Norway and a blog at He lives in New York.
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