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China Stock Party Won't Last

Editor's note: This column was submitted by Stockpickr member Faisal Laljee, author of StocksandBlogs.com.

I hate to be a party pooper, but the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the excitement surrounding all the recent China stock IPOs reminds me of the Nasdaq exuberance of 2000.

Granted, China is growing at a 10% pace, but does that justify the 80 multiple currently sported by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, especially when compared to the meager 16 multiple of the S&P 500? We may be seeing hints today of a more rational market to come -- check out Bubble Fears Circle Chinese Tech Stocks from this morning.

It seems as though every day, all day, I see new tickers scroll across my TV screen representing new companies I've never heard of: China Digital TV (STV), China Natural Resources (CHNR), China Finance Online (JRJC) ... the list goes on. Many have no history of earnings.

The Chinese market is up 110% so far this year and more than 200% since January 2006.

Even stocks like China Mobile (CHL), China Telecom (CHA), China Life (LFC) and Baidu (BIDU), stocks that actually have an earnings history and have some claim to investor confidence are up like the Ciscos (CSCO) and Aribas (ARBA) of the tech bubble.

I don't know when the party will end, but it will definitely end unless we see a near-term, decent-sized correction. And when it ends, I would hate to be holding anything that starts with the word China.

My recommendation: If you are a gambler, keep betting on China until one day you lose a lot of money. Otherwise, reduce your exposure to China (note I say "reduce" because I don't know when a top will come -- nobody does).

Go long Russia (RSX), India (IFN), South Africa (EZA), France and even Indonesia.

Alternatively, you can pick up select names in Latin America, Europe, Turkey and Brazil. There are plenty of ways to make 30% to 40% returns a year without the risk of losing your shirt.

At the time of publication, Laljee was long China Mobile (but has taken half his position off over the last week). Positions, however, may change at any time.

This article was written by a member of the Stockpickr community.

Stock recommendations and comments presented on Stockpickr.com are solely those of the members quoted. They do not represent the opinions of Stockpickr.com on whether to buy, sell or hold shares of a particular stock.

Members should be cautious about any and all stock recommendations and should consider the source of any advice on stock selection. Various factors, including personal or corporate ownership, may influence or factor into a member's stock analysis or opinion.

All members are advised to conduct their own independent research into individual stocks before making a purchase decision. In addition, investors are advised that past stock performance or portfolio performance is no guarantee of future price appreciation or performance.

Furthermore, Stockpickr.com does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of information on the site, nor does Stockpickr.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or recommendations. Such information recommendations are for general information only.

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