Usual Suspects Whack Retailers

Teen retailers are expected to see only a 0.2% uptick in same-store sales. American Eagle is expected to post an increase of 1.2%.

Christine Chen, an analyst for Needham & Co., remains positive on teen retailers' performance in the month, despite the unseasonable weather.

"We remain convinced that teens will continue to spend in (the second half of the year) as a result of must-have fashion items in key categories such as dresses, knit tops and denim," she says.

Discount chains are expected to report 2.4% same-store sales growth, or 3.9% excluding Wal-Mart. That compares to a 2.3% climb last year, or 4.5% increase without Wal-Mart.

Wal-Mart projects 1% to 3% growth in September same-store sales, in line with analysts' expectations of 1.9%. Target lowered its forecast to a 1.5% to 2.5% rise, while Wall Street expects it to post a 2.2% gain.

Niemira does not expect the shopping outlook to change much for the crucial holiday season ahead, unless the economy deteriorates rapidly between now and then.

"What you see now is likely the holiday season you'll see later," he says. "The overall pace will not be terribly different."

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