Adam Feuerstein
I guess I'm on the fence about Biogen Idec.
Next up, this email from Theodor L.: "I would like your take on the probability of FDA approval of Neurocrine BioSciences' insomnia drug indiplon. According to its CEO, the FDA did not request any additional trials." After getting kicked to the curb by the Food and Drug Administration the first time around -- and losing its dance partner Pfizer(PFE Quote - Cramer on PFE - Stock Picks) -- you'd expect (hope) that Neurocrine has gotten its act together enough to get indiplon approved. The FDA action date on the indiplon approval decision is Dec. 12. So, yeah, I guess the odds are in Neurocrine's favor, but frankly, I don't think it matters much. As I've written before, the insomnia drug market is very competitive and indiplon will enter with many disadvantages. My sense is that investors won't give Neurocrine much credit for an indiplon approval until the company lines up a strong marketing partner and/or proves it can actually sell the drug. I did sit in on Neurocrine CEO Gary Lyons' presentation at the UBS biotech conference last week and came away puzzled. Lyons' major take-away message was that indiplon will be the drug of choice for people who wake up in the middle of the night and can't go back to sleep. He showed off results from a company-sponsored marketing survey that found that this "middle-of-the-night" niche is problem No. 1 for insomniacs.
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