Asset Managers

An Inflation Play as Good as -- or Better Than -- Gold

 

Volpert, whose fund is up 5.7% year to date, says TIPS are "fairly priced right now." He points out that there are $430 billion in TIPS currently in a market that has been growing annually by about 10%, so "supply is good, but not overwhelming." Meanwhile, on the demand side, overall performance has improved so "we have been seeing a nice bid underlying the market."

Another Federal Reserve rate cut like the last one, however, would really boost TIPS, says Volpert.

"I'd be concerned if the Fed eases a lot more, because the Fed was talking tough about inflation and then surprised the market with a deeper-than-expected rate cut," says Volpert. "That justifies long-term concerns about inflation."

Those concerns are evident in the break-even rate, which in bond parlance refers to the difference between the yield on conventional Treasury securities and that of comparable TIPS. The current break-even rate on 10-year TIPS is 2.3%, which has climbed since this summer, but is still below April's 2.5% reading, and well below last year's peak of almost 2.8%.

More troubling for inflation watchers, however, is the five-year forward rate, which measures inflation over the long term. That rate is now at 2.6%, up from 2.53% before the Fed's dramatic rate cut, as well as some relatively benign August CPI data.

"The CPI is backward looking, but the market looks forward," says Volpert. "The Fed rate cut was dovish to the point where many people are wondering if more easing is on the way."

And perhaps more interest in TIPS.

>To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints

Before joining TheStreet.com, Gregg Greenberg was a writer and segment producer for CNBC's Closing Bell. He previously worked at FleetBoston and Lehman Brothers in their Private Client Services divisions, covering high net-worth individuals and midsize hedge funds. Greenberg attended New York University's School of Business and Economic Reporting. He also has an M.B.A. from Cornell University's Johnson School of Business, and a B.A. in history from Amherst College.

TheStreet Premium Services

Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS:
Trade right alongside a Wall Street pro — enjoy access to his Charitable Trust portfolio and be sent trade alerts BEFORE he makes a move. Learn More
OptionsProfits
OptionsProfits:
Get 50+ trade ideas a week from the industry's top options experts. Plus — exclusive commentary on market trends and essential trading tools. Learn More
Real Money
Real Money:
Our team of professional Wall Street Pros — including Jim Cramer, Doug Kass, and Nicholas Vardy — delivers intelligent analysis, timely trade ideas, and colorful commentary. Learn More
Stocks Under $10
Stocks Under $10:
Break into the market with small- and mid-cap stocks... all $10 or less! David Peltier tells you exactly which low-priced stocks he's buying and selling. Learn More
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
blog comments powered by Disqus
Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
12,419.86 1,313.32 2,837.36 16.25
Oil *
103.00
DOWN
160.83
DOWN
19.10
DOWN
33.63
DOWN
1.06
10 Yr
1.62%
SPDR Gold
151.91
-1.28%
-1.43%
-1.17%
-6.12%
Data delayed 20 minutes

Top Stories and Tools

Articles From

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

We respect your privacy.
Podcasts

Connect with TheStreet