Surge Reduction Fans Political Flames

But the Republicans face troubles of their own. The president has handed a lemon to the Republicans in Congress. The Republicans in Congress can in turn say to their constituents that we have made "progress" in Iraq and the troops will come home.

Ultimately, I expect no change of our policy in Iraq until January 2009. That means defense companies will maintain the high profit margins they have enjoyed since 2002 and there won't be any significant reduction in spending to drawdown on GDP.

The president also alluded to a future after he's no longer in office. "These Iraqi leaders have asked for an enduring relationship with America," he said. "And we are ready to begin building that relationship -- in a way that protects our interests in the region and requires many fewer American troops."

That future will be fought out all next year during the congressional and presidential elections where the public will finally weigh in on this long-term view.