Surge Reduction Fans Political Flames

Despite the bad news, Bush only sees the bright side. He announced the endorsement of Gen. Petraeus' recommendation for troop withdrawals because of the "improving" security situation. As many as 5,700 could come home by Christmas, and another 21,000 may return by next July. This assumes no change for the worse, by the way.

The troop withdrawals are not really withdrawals. The Pentagon has said that the "surge" couldn't be continued any longer than next spring because of a lack of troops. Troop tours presently last 15 months -- up from 12 months before the war started. The surge troops were deployed between January and June of this year and would be returning anyway. Troop levels merely will return to pre-surge levels.

This raises the economic impact. A report from Merrill Lynch assessing the economic impact of a troop withdrawal suggests that the reduction in troops could have an impact on GDP. Based on CBO estimates, the spending on Iraq accounts for 20% of GDP. This leaves the two parties facing interesting challenges as the presidential campaign heats up.

The Democrats in Congress possess significant arguments to oppose the president's plan: the "surge" failed, Iraq remains violent, and troop withdrawals aren't withdrawals.

Still, I don't believe the opposition can succeed. The Democrats have a small majority in the House, where they can pass what they want. But the Senate is another story. They have 49 votes and possibly 50 with Bernie Sanders (D., Vt.) included. They can forget about Joe Lieberman (I., Conn.). The Democrats cannot muster 60 votes to end a filibuster, nor can they come close to 67 to override a veto.