Slump Won't Dent Back-to-School Sales

Wal-Mart, which earlier this summer slashed prices on 16,000 items in its stores at the cost of its margins, still sees promise in back-to-school shopping. During the company's second quarter earnings call, Eduardo Castro-Wright, CEO of the discount chain's U.S. stores, said he has been encouraged by August sales and noted that customers are buying items closer to when they need them.

Abercrombie & Fitch, which posted a 4% drop in July same-store sales, declined to discuss its read on the back-to-school season during its second-quarter earnings call.

Analyst Christine Chen of Needham & Co. expects same-store sales for the company to increase 1% in the third quarter vs. 5% last year. She characterized her prediction as conservative because of a back-to-school calendar shift out of July (the second quarter) and into August, which could give the third quarter a lift.

Overall, although apparel and accessories still make up the largest category of back-to-school sales -- an estimated $7.6 billion -- the NRF expects them to be flat compared with last year.

The NRF predicts that the biggest back-to-school sales drivers this year will be electronics, including items such as laptops, cell phones and iPods, as the higher demand from college students help boost results. Footwear and school supplies should also see a big surge, the trade group said.