Tenet's Turn for Worse

OKLAHOMA CITY -- Tenet's (THC Quote) vital signs are in decline.

An analyst who has long been skeptical about the hospital chain grabbed investors' attention recently by saying he isn't sure Tenet can survive. Credit Suisse analyst Kenneth Weakley began coverage of Tenet last week with an underperform rating, predicting that the stock -- already at a two-decade low -- could fall to $2 in the next year and become essentially worthless down the road.

"We would argue that no tangible evidence supports a turnaround thesis at this point, as almost every important metric for hospital operations fails to show a sign of recovery," wrote Weakley, whose firm makes a market in the company's securities. "Therefore, we view THC not as a turnaround story but as one that is still very much in secular decline."

Tenet fired back that it is in good enough shape to execute a long-promised turnaround, but Wall Street clearly has its doubts. Shares hit a 52-week low of $3.23 at midweek before staging a modest recovery heading into Labor Day.

But even beyond the recent negative comments from longtime critic Weakley, Tenet fans have many issues to mull over. For starters, even hospital industry leaders such as Universal Health (UHS Quote) find themselves struggling in a tough economic environment.

Now, some observers are pointing to a lease dispute involving some of the Tenet's core hospitals as another sign of potential problems.