Credit Market Stays in Focus

The stock market, which was dramatically in what technicians call oversold territory, rallied back from a 10% correction mark Thursday and again Friday in response to the Fed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 233 points Friday, though it still ended the week lower by 1.2%.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly index of leading indicators reveals the economy's outlook has dimmed. Its weekly growth rate dropped to 4.2 from 5.1 last week, and down from its June peak this year of 6.9.

But the group, which was successful in predicting the last recession, says the decline in its indicator is largely "because of market turmoil," and that "real economic variables" are balancing out the market's plunge.

"This is not a recessionary scenario," says Anirvan Banerji, director of research for the ECRI.

Data Overshadowed

The coming week's calendar of economic data is lighter than the past week's, which investors largely ignored amid the market's mayhem. Last week's reports included declines in housing starts and permits, but strong showings by retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization rates.

"But those reports covered July performance, before the most recent financial turmoil," notes Peter Kretzmer, senior economist at Bank of America.

Next week's roster of more July data may also fall mostly on deaf ears as all eyes remain on the credit markets' situation. Among the reports are July's leading indicators on Monday, and durable goods orders for July and new-home sales figures for the month on Friday.

Likely gaining more attention will be a speech Tuesday by Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker. He will speak at 12:30 p.m. EDT at the Risk Management Association of Charlotte's annual meeting in North Carolina.

Among corporate earnings reports, retailers will be back in the spotlight with their second-quarter results. Last week, Wal-Mart (WMT Quote) and Home Depot (HD Quote) offered gloomy statements about the economy, adding to market fears about consumer spending.

The coming week's retail reports include Lowe's(LOW Quote) on Monday, Target (TGT Quote) and Staples (SPLS Quote) on Tuesday, Limited Brands (LTD Quote) and Abercrombie (ANF Quote)Wednesday and Gap (GPS Quote) on Thursday.

Other companies out with earnings include Toll Brothers(TOL Quote), Medtronic (MDT Quote) and Brocade Communications(BRCD Quote).

1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish Bearish Neutral 2 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move up in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities 3 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move down in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities View the results without voting