Vertex Drug Could Be Huge

BOSTON -- The on-and-off love affair between Wall Street and Vertex Pharmaceuticals(VRTX) is on again.

Shares of the Cambridge, Mass.-based biopharmaceutical firm have jumped 35% since the end of June as investors grow more confident that telaprevir, Vertex's experimental hepatitis C drug, will be a game-changing blockbuster.

On Tuesday, Vertex Chief Medical Officer John Alam and CFO Ian Smith gave me an update on telaprevir. The body language of both men was very confident. Of course, Vertex executives have a reputation for being too cocky for their own good. This is especially true for CEO Joshua Boger -- and it's gotten him in some trouble with Wall Street in the past.

But in talking with Alam and Smith, the message came through loud and clear that a rational analysis of the information on telaprevir is convincing enough to erase any doubts about the drug's efficacy. This is a drug that will significantly increase the number of patients who can be cured of hepatitis C.

Equally important, telaprevir will help cure these patients in half the time required today, they believe.

In other words, telaprevir is going to be a big drug. Just how big -- $2 billion in sales? $3 billion? $4 billion? -- remains to be seen.

An important meeting of liver disease specialists in early November will be the venue for the release of the latest telaprevir clinical data from ongoing phase II clinical trials. This is a key meeting for Vertex and one that will be closely followed by investors.