Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:

• the next big signal from the market;
• the one toxic area; and
• what's working now, what isn't.

Click here for information on RealMoney.com, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.

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What Stocks Are Saying Now

Originally published on July 23 at 12:00 p.m. EDT

You can see what's happening. The market's getting split here. The bears are saying that the Treasuries fell below 5% (big, big rally) because of total fear. But the non-bears (can't call them bulls, as you will understand in a moment) are making lots of noises through stocks to say that it's a first-class slowdown related to housing and gasoline prices.

You know all of the flight-to-quality reasons: deals that can't get done and paper that's too toxic to own so everyone and his brother is selling toxic stuff to get into safety.

But the slowdown? I need you to check out Clorox(CLX Quote - Cramer on CLX - Stock Picks) and Procter & Gamble(PG Quote - Cramer on PG - Stock Picks).

Clorox ran up Friday off a big buy of August 65 calls. Lots of takeover chatter. But today, no deal, and the stock is still going up.

P&G hasn't been able to move up a point in ages. But in this environment, the slowdown thesis environment, it moves up effortlessly.

Medco Health Solutions(MHS Quote - Cramer on MHS - Stock Picks), another classic counter-cyclical, is breaking out to new highs. Colgate's(CL Quote - Cramer on CL - Stock Picks) up a buck ahead of earnings. Kellogg's(K Quote - Cramer on K - Stock Picks) starting to make a move.

These moves are not happening in a vacuum. These are really hard-to-move stocks and they are saying -- no, screaming that we are going see a big slowdown, and the market's freaking out right now. Don't believe these drug stocks can levitate, either -- check out Abbott(ABT Quote - Cramer on ABT - Stock Picks) -- on a strong economy.

When in doubt, I go with stocks. Because without them you are going to miss an awful lot of somewhat easy appreciation.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Clorox.

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Only Housing-Related Stocks Are Roped-Off

Originally published on July 24 at 9:33 a.m. EDT

The cordon remains up. More than ever. Countrywide's(CFC Quote - Cramer on CFC - Stock Picks) having problems with credit-worthy borrowers. That is a big change.

It verifies the worry that the market's dictating. In fact, it says, "Look, the homebuilders need to be avoided at all costs and someone's going to go belly-up."

The cordon remains up because this is a major change from what Angelo Mozilo had been saying as recently as last spring.

Usual suspects: anyone who makes or buys loans -- corporate, mortgage, whatever. Mortgage is becoming a complete joke at this point. Homebuilders? Beazer(BZH Quote - Cramer on BZH - Stock Picks)? Sold to you.

But the other side of the cordon gets stronger and stronger. I hope DuPont(DD Quote - Cramer on DD - Stock Picks) impacts all of the takeover names in chemicals, because they are doing well. Texas Instruments(TXN Quote - Cramer on TXN - Stock Picks) is giving you another chance to get into tech. Soft goods now working; AT&T(T Quote - Cramer on T - Stock Picks) working. Lot working.

And Google(GOOG Quote - Cramer on GOOG - Stock Picks)? Coming down. Getting real interesting.

Just stay away from the roped-off toxic area.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in any of the stocks mentioned in this post.

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What's Working Now, and What Isn't

Originally published on July 25 at 10:52 a.m. EDT

The formula is simple. It's like a checklist for what you can and can't own in a slowing U.S. economy with credit woes throughout the system brought on by what always brings it on: declining underwriting standards.

So first, here's the checklist of what must be avoided:

1. Does it need lower rates from the Fed to go up? Countrywide(CFC Quote - Cramer on CFC - Stock Picks) now tops this list. And any housing company -- Lennar(LEN Quote - Cramer on LEN - Stock Picks), Toll(TOL Quote - Cramer on TOL - Stock Picks), Centex(CTX Quote - Cramer on CTX - Stock Picks), Horton(DHI Quote - Cramer on DHI - Stock Picks), Pulte(PHM Quote - Cramer on PHM - Stock Picks). I am really worried about these. Also, all banks, all brokers.
2. Does the consumer need to borrow in order to finance the purchase? That's almost every retailer. Circuit City(CC Quote - Cramer on CC - Stock Picks) comes most immediately to mind.
3. Does the corporation or the private banker need to borrow in order to make an acquisition (as opposed to using stock or cash on hand)? That takes out all private equity.
4. Does it have mostly domestic business? Does that business get hurt on a further decline in housing or GDP? Can it be offset by international demand? There are tons of companies that fall into this category.

It's a four-point program!

Now, what can be bought?

1. Soft goods with good growth overseas. Pepsi's(PEP Quote - Cramer on PEP - Stock Picks) now the best. Colgate(CL Quote - Cramer on CL - Stock Picks), after the quarter. I like Clorox(CLX Quote - Cramer on CLX - Stock Picks). Kimberly-Clark's(KMB Quote - Cramer on KMB - Stock Picks) now good.
2. Machinery, metal and mining stocks, the infrastructure you need to take advantage of them -- and what transports them to overseas. I don't include coal because the green movement has stopped it for now and the government has given up supporting coal -- at least, until it realizes it has no choice. Caterpillar's(CAT Quote - Cramer on CAT - Stock Picks) right again. Foster Wheeler(FWLT Quote - Cramer on FWLT - Stock Picks) on a pullback, KBR(KBR Quote - Cramer on KBR - Stock Picks) on a pullback, McDermott(MDR Quote - Cramer on MDR - Stock Picks) after the quarter, Fluor(FLR Quote - Cramer on FLR - Stock Picks), CB&I(CBI Quote - Cramer on CBI - Stock Picks), Jacobs(JEC Quote - Cramer on JEC - Stock Picks), Manitowoc(MTW Quote - Cramer on MTW - Stock Picks), Terex(TEX Quote - Cramer on TEX - Stock Picks).
3. Oil -- but not gas, unless we get some sort of disruption of supply for the latter. Extracting oil anywhere but North America is the strongest area, followed by the integrated oils. Will natural gas come back? Everything will come back, but this is a checklist of what can be bought now. Transocean(RIG Quote - Cramer on RIG - Stock Picks) on a pullback, Halliburton(HAL Quote - Cramer on HAL - Stock Picks) on a pullback, Schlumberger(SLB Quote - Cramer on SLB - Stock Picks) on a pullback, Conoco(COP Quote - Cramer on COP - Stock Picks) and Chevron(CVX Quote - Cramer on CVX - Stock Picks) now. XTO(XTO Quote - Cramer on XTO - Stock Picks) for those willing to wait, as this one is the best wildcatters in the world. Apache's(APA Quote - Cramer on APA - Stock Picks) good too.
4. Tech that's international that does well as part of the back-to-school and holiday buildup. Dell(DELL Quote - Cramer on DELL - Stock Picks), Hewlett-Packard(HPQ Quote - Cramer on HPQ - Stock Picks), Texas Instruments(TXN Quote - Cramer on TXN - Stock Picks), Adobe(ADBE Quote - Cramer on ADBE - Stock Picks) all good.
5. Drugs that do lots of business overseas. Merck(MRK Quote - Cramer on MRK - Stock Picks), Schering(SGP Quote - Cramer on SGP - Stock Picks) and Lilly(LLY Quote - Cramer on LLY - Stock Picks) all good.
6. Health care cost containment. Think Medco(MHS Quote - Cramer on MHS - Stock Picks) and CVS(CVS Quote - Cramer on CVS - Stock Picks).
7. Aerospace and defense. Aerospace because demand is international with a new product cycle, and defense because we now know the war drags on, no matter what. Alliant Tech(ATK Quote - Cramer on ATK - Stock Picks) is the best there, now that we have seen Lockheed Martin(LMT Quote - Cramer on LMT - Stock Picks). I would still buy Lockheed and L-3(LLL Quote - Cramer on LLL - Stock Picks) and Raytheon(RTN Quote - Cramer on RTN - Stock Picks). Boeing(BA Quote - Cramer on BA - Stock Picks) works. So does Riverbed(RVBD Quote - Cramer on RVBD - Stock Picks).
8. The Web. Google's(GOOG Quote - Cramer on GOOG - Stock Picks) been punished long enough. Growth is too great. Omniture(OMTR Quote - Cramer on OMTR - Stock Picks) and Level 3(LVLT Quote - Cramer on LVLT - Stock Picks) are the preferred specs.
9. Ag. Be careful about a robust corn crop, but this works into the election. Deere(DE Quote - Cramer on DE - Stock Picks), Bunge(BG Quote - Cramer on BG - Stock Picks), Monsanto(MON Quote - Cramer on MON - Stock Picks).
10. Telco infrastructure. They need to build. They can't help it. They have starved their infrastructure -- check Noah Blackstein's excellent piece from Tuesday. Cisco(CSCO Quote - Cramer on CSCO - Stock Picks), Ciena(CIEN Quote - Cramer on CIEN - Stock Picks), Juniper(JNPR Quote - Cramer on JNPR - Stock Picks) and even Sycamore(SCMR Quote - Cramer on SCMR - Stock Picks) (that's how strong this is now).

What happens if you own one of the stocks that is on the bad checklist?

Sell if you can't take pain.

I can't be more honest than that. I am used to taking pain. Most people aren't. Sell. And be aware, if I own one of the "sell" stocks for my Action Alerts PLUS, it's not contradictory -- I'm running a long-term, balanced portfolio that can't ignore 50% of the S&P 500, which is pretty much what I am ruling out here.

If the average audience of Stockpickr can be the judge, everything I do is contrary and inconsistent, but that's because I am writing about both my time frame, which allows some of the bad, and the current time frame, which doesn't. I find that lack of discernment ridiculous; most of the people who read me act like hedge fund managers and only care about tomorrow or today. That's silly, but it's the audience so I play to it.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Clorox, Caterpillar, Transocean, XTO Energy and Hewlett-Packard.

1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish Bearish Neutral 2 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move up in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities 3 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move down in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities View the results without voting