This column was originally published on RealMoney
on July 19 at 10:58 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney,
Count the wrong assumptions on a daily basis.
(MO - Get Report) reports an outstanding quarter, after a series of disappointments, but the stock goes down yesterday, and people say it is a bad quarter.
(INTC - Get Report) disappoints. Why? Because it can't charge enough for its microprocessors because of a price war, but it says that the demand, particularly for notebooks, is incredibly strong.
So what happens?
(HPQ - Get Report), which is the notebook king and a huge supplier of microprocessors,
finalizes the break-up plans -- they look great -- management is energized to create value, and one of the divisions, kitchens and baths, slips, and it gets hammered. Who the heck cares? The company won't even exist as it is next quarter.
Clearwire opens in the $20s, it is loved, it goes to $16, it is hated, and then the technology gains adherent after adherent because Craig McCaw is such a winner, so it doubles.
So many people take their cues from a wacky stock market and the short-term price moves, rather than from their own counsel. Drives me nuts. For two weeks I had to hear about how something was wrong with
International Game Technology
. Nope. There was nothing wrong, just a bunch of stupid, fearful sellers operating at the same time.
I am telling you that everyone who is betting against
because it will buy
and it will pay too much will be dead wrong, and that stock will be proven to be ridiculously undervalued.
Take your cue not from the price movements but from the conviction you have. If you don't have conviction,