Apple's iPhone Misses Sales Targets

Had Apple sold out of the iPhone on its debut, thirst for the phone would be seen as unquenched and potentially unknowable, say observers. But since only about three-quarters of the magical allotment were sold, "We now know that demand was less than a million," says Entner.

Based on the early sales estimates, analysts predict that AT&T could take about 2.6 million customers from its rivals. But that assumption is built on current demand, which could be unsustainable.

All the hoopla around the iPhone's launch and the well-staged sales kick off helped create a lot of pent-up demand.

"What we saw the first day were the diehards who wanted the phone, no matter what," says Entner. "Now we have the rational buyers. And these people are looking much harder to see if the phone is worth $600."