Force Protection Treads Water

Like many, Miller suspects that Oshkosh -- which is partnering with a company run by Force Protection's founder -- could land the next big deal instead. Notably, Oshkosh partner Protected Vehicles boasts an offering that is uniquely capable of surviving so-called "explosively formed penetrators." Those weapons are now viewed as even bigger threats than the improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, that other MRAP vehicles effectively shield.

Protected Vehicles is already providing the military with dozens of its Golan trucks in response. But the company hopes to supply even more Golans, possibly with help from Oshkosh or another partner, going forward.

BAE's new contract could actually signal good news for the company. Interestingly, experts note, the award included no calls for BAE's RG-33L -- a rival to Protected Vehicles' Golan -- despite high expectations for the vehicle.

"A recent contract has put (BAE) solidly back into the competition, including a couple of promising niche orders," Defense Industry Daily wrote on Friday. "Nevertheless, the curious [omission] of the mainstream RG-33L orders remains one of the salient features of this contract."

To be fair, Force Protection has monopolized orders for Category II MRAP vehicles, which include both the Golan and the RG-33L, placed by the military so far. Indeed, based on Gremmels' estimates, Force Protection has sold five times as many Category II vehicles as all of the company's competitors combined. But Protected Vehicles, at least, has been taking steps to widen its own share.

"We have been putting the infrastructure in place to build serious numbers" of both Category I and Category II vehicles, Protected Vehicles CEO Garth Barrett told TheStreet.com earlier this month. "We know the urgency of the need, and we have the desire to meet that need to the fullest extent possible. ... We are poised to supply."