Force Protection Treads Water

Force Protection fans remain upbeat nonetheless. Thomas Weisel Partners analyst David Gremmels on Thursday treated the BAE order as an expected development, despite the company's regulatory problems, and predicted another competitor win -- possibly by rival Oshkosh (OSK Quote) -- as well. But he still feels that Force Protection will control at least half of the MRAP program in the end.

Gremmels has an overweight rating on Force Protection's stock. His firm makes a market in the company's securities.

Even now, Gremmels notes, Force Protection still boasts 48% of the MRAP orders placed so far. Navistar commands a smaller 33% market share, despite winning the single-largest MRAP contract handed out to date, and BAE now follows with 14% of the current MRAP awards. For the time being, Gremmels' calculations show, Oshkosh still trails as a distant fourth with just 4% of the MRAP orders.

But Stanford Group analyst Josephine Millward feels that equation could rapidly change. She, too, believes that Oshkosh could soon emerge as a bigger player in the MRAP game. Meanwhile, she questions whether Force Protection will field all of the new orders that the company is gearing up to land.

"In order to meet this aggressive production schedule, FRPT would require another order of 1,300 units by July 1, another 1,000 units by October and 6,000 units by November," Millward wrote on Monday. "As we said before, it is possible for Force Protection to receive another 1,000 units-plus order if the fourth company does not pass the performance test.

"But we put the odds at less than 50%."