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After the Fed: Hesitation

06/28/07 - 05:40 PM EDT

Liz Rappaport

In other words, the central bank wants to see a series of low core inflation readings to be sure inflation will not succumb to whatever pressures may push it higher.

The Fed kept its slight bias toward tightening, noting that the "Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected." And on growth, the Fed gave a nod to the "ongoing adjustment in the housing sector," but added that regardless, the economy "seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters."

From the bond market's perspective, the statement wasn't quite dovish enough. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to 5.11%, up from 5.07% on Wednesday.

"They give you just enough information to be unclear," says Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Brothers. "You can't in a few paragraphs explain everything you're thinking on an issue as complex as inflation."

Harris notes that the markets may be ready for the new communication strategy the Fed has been working on now for about one year. It is unclear when any changes to the current methods might be announced.

As far as the tea leaves can reveal, "the FOMC statement says they're happy with recent inflation readings, but they emphasize that they continue to be uncertain whether that will continue," says Harris. "It is about the forecast."

In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, Rappaport doesn't own or short individual stocks. She also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. She appreciates your feedback. Click here to send her an email.

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