Online Gamblers Place Bets on Hillary
If the betting on Hillary looks remarkable, check out the action on the Republican betting slips.
John McCain came into the year being given around a 50% shot at the nomination. And the long-standing GOP front-runner was still there, holding steady, just two months ago. If anything, he was firming up his lead.
Today? Try 8%.
No, that's not a typo. Betting on the "straight talk" maverick has collapsed. The fast money says his support for the immigration bill has destroyed his chances with the Republican base. "The punters are saying McCain has no chance at all," says Cantor's Buik.Instead, the money right now puts it at a two-way race between Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani, with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney running a decent third. Although the prices vary a bit between markets, Thompson and Giuliani roughly average about 31% each, while Romney is about 24%. Thompson's jump into the race has fulfilled the prediction made to me over drinks in a Boston bar by one of Mitt Romney's operatives two months ago. Thompson, a "personality" candidate, has taken more support from Rudy Giuliani than from Romney. In the past, political futures markets have had a pretty good record of predicting outcomes. They have tended to do better than a simple headline reading of the opinion polls, especially at this sort of distance. Right now, the polls reflect name recognition as much as anything. The question is whether the betting on Hillary Clinton is as smart as it is heavy. The former First Lady carries a lot of negatives and a lot of baggage. If you think there's a good chance she won't get the nomination, then now would be the opportune moment to go "short," hedge fund style, and bet against her. My own two cents? If I were trading, rather than writing, I'd take this moment as "buying opportunities" for shares in Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. There is a long way to go before the primaries.
Select the service that is right for you!COMPARE ALL SERVICES
Jim Cramer and Stephanie Link actively manage a real portfolio and reveal their money management tactics while giving advanced notice before every trade.
- $2.5+ million portfolio
- Large-cap and dividend focus
- Intraday trade alerts from Cramer
- Weekly roundups
Access the tool that DOMINATES the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.
- Buy, hold, or sell recommendations for over 4,300 stocks
- Unlimited research reports on your favorite stocks
- A custom stock screener
- Upgrade/downgrade alerts
Jim Cramer's protege, David Peltier, identifies the best of breed dividend stocks that will pay a reliable AND significant income stream.
- Diversified model portfolio of dividend stocks
- Alerts when market news affect the portfolio
- Bi-weekly updates with exact steps to take - BUY, HOLD, SELL
All of Real Money, plus 15 more of Wall Street's sharpest minds delivering actionable trading ideas, a comprehensive look at the market, and fundamental and technical analysis.
- Real Money + Doug Kass Plus 15 more Wall Street Pros
- Intraday commentary & news
- Ultra-actionable trading ideas
Our options trading pros provide daily market commentary and over 100 monthly option trading ideas and strategies to help you become a well-seasoned trader.
- 100+ monthly options trading ideas
- Actionable options commentary & news
- Real-time trading community
- Options TV