Rivals Burst Force Protection's Bubble

Now, Millward looks for two Force Protection rivals to land new contracts in a matter of days. Notably, Millward believes that General Dynamics (GD Quote) -- Force Protection's joint-venture partner -- may have already passed performance tests and could soon snag a big contract on its own. Then, she feels that Armor or Oshkosh could announce a major award right after that.

Millward has hinted at a big win for Armor in particular. Last month, she predicted that Armor would score a "prime contract" for up to $500 million worth of vehicles -- or five times the company's own forecast -- under the MRAP program.

Millward downgraded Armor from buy to hold the same day, however, due to concerns about the company's valuation. The stock, while up 7 cents to $86.82 on Friday, has been flat since then.

Rising Stars

Meanwhile, Barrington Research analyst Walter Liptak this month reiterated his outperform rating on Oshkosh ahead of an expected MRAP deal.

Liptak looks for Oshkosh to secure an order for 1,000 MRAP trucks, worth up to $600 million, within the next week. All told, Liptak believes that Oshkosh will capture 20% of the entire MRAP market -- and, quite possibly, even more.

Together with privately held Protected Vehicles, a company run by Force Protection founder Garth Barrett, Oshkosh has already won a contract to supply the U.S. military with 100 Category I MRAP vehicles. But Oshkosh hopes to start selling the military some heavier -- and more expensive -- Category II vehicles as well.