Ethanol May Not Beat Gas

Currently, a parallel market for DDGS is by no means assured, Groode says. Thus, any model that assumes a greenhouse gas reallocation to an ethanol byproduct like DDGS is highly presumptuous.

The only clear benefit of corn ethanol production found in Groode's research is the amount of oil that ethanol displaces as its importance grows in the marketplace. Burning ethanol decreases petroleum consumption by 68% on a per-unit basis.

Since the U.S. must import most of its petroleum, higher ethanol use corresponds to a decreased reliance on oil imports. However, processing ethanol on an industrial scale would increase the need for natural gas as a feedstock. Natural gas is already imported in a liquefied form, and that amount would likely grow if ethanol use were to reach a level that made a dent on petroleum demand.

Groode's findings suggest that while corn-based ethanol will likely not be the white knight that energy conservationists are looking for, it could be a stepping stone to a more efficient and environmentally friendly alternative.

The next step toward making a mass-market biofuel, according to Groode, is cellulosic ethanol, derived from plants with cellulose, such as switchgrass. Cellulosic ethanol hasn't been perfected for industrial use yet. If it was to reach mass production, Groode predicts that cellulosic ethanol would have a 40% higher net energy value and 60% less greenhouse gas emissions than today's corn ethanol.

Regardless of its inefficiencies, Groode says that corn ethanol's expanding presence in the energy marketplace is good for U.S. consumers because they are growing accustomed to seeing it in their daily lives.

According to Groode, the more that people recognize ethanol as a common additive to existing gasoline blends, the more comfortable consumers will become with ethanol and other biofuels.

Land use restrictions will ultimately play a major role in any industrial-scale ethanol production program, according to Groode. In 2006, U.S. corn ethanol production demanded 20% of domestic corn acreage. Increasing ethanol production to a level that decreases petroleum demand could require the use of between 50% and 75% of the planted corn acreage in 2006.

The question that has to be asked, then, is if we were to ever reach the point where we could make our own motor fuel, would we still have the space to grow our own food?