Stalled Merger Slamming Sirius

"It seems relatively safe to assume that the intervention -- in the form of face-to-face meetings -- of several politicians and organizations represented by former politicians is slowing the preliminary review process," Trout writes.

This strategic snail pacing will likely put any potential decision off until next year, says Trout.

"Each passing day without the FCC's pleading cycle and review clock being initiated threatens [investors' hopes for] an FCC decision before the end of 2007," he writes.

The FCC is probably the easier of the two agencies to get the deal past, say Washington-based merger experts. The bigger challenge lies with the antitrust lawyers at Justice.

The deal's OK hinges on how Justice defines the market. If regulators take a narrow definition, with the two players becoming one, the deal's dead, say antitrust experts. If Justice includes wider markets like MP3s and iPods, conventional radio and digital radio broadcasts, there's a chance the deal will be approved, these experts say.

Either way, it's looking more and more like a 2008 decision.

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