Home-Sales Data Paint Fuzzy Picture

The Census Bureau tracks the sale of a new home, but once a contract is entered, the deal is considered final. That number isn't changed if the contract is canceled, nor does it change if the contract is canceled and then resold later on.

Oppenheim has argued that new-home sales reports in February and March have underestimated the true level of demand because they didn't count the resale of homes where contracts had been canceled. That would make the big month-over-month jump in April an artificial comparison.

"We think the reality is that trends worsened" in April from recent months, Oppenheim said in his note.

Inventories fell to 6.5 months of supply at the current sales rate, down sharply from the revised 8.1-months level in March, the Census Bureau said.

The raw inventory of homes totaled 538,000 units, the lowest level since January. But although inventory has fallen, it remains at historically high levels.

And as Oppenheim points out, the inventory number is also misleading.

"While we believe inventory levels are falling, as builders focus on selling speculative inventory, the Census Bureau continues to understate the inventory levels because canceled homes do not get counted," Oppenheim said.

Home prices also didn't provide much reassurance of a turnaround. The median sales price of a new home fell to $229,000 in April from $257,600 in March.