The $100 Barrel of Oil

Rather, the U.S.' best hope is to try to contain violence within Iraq's borders and shorten its duration by working with neighbors to cut-off foreign support and broker a regional peace plan. This was precisely the strategy proposed by the Iraq Study Group and rejected by U.S. leadership.

Keep Your Eye on the Strategy

So what does this mean? Keep your eye on the strategy. Washington's heated debate about time frames and force levels is ultimately tactical. So long as the U.S. seeks to secure Iraq alone and from within, its prospects are bleak. Although failure could take many forms, it would significantly increase the risk of prolonged regional (rather than simply Iraqi) instability and much higher sustained high oil prices.

If the U.S. changes strategy and addresses the civil war directly -- engaging Iraq's neighbors and negotiating the difficult trade-offs needed to obtain their cooperation -- then the risk of Iraq's civil war engulfing the region may be diminished.

The U.S. leadership's repeated refusal to engage Iran and Syria and its dismal recent diplomatic record in the Middle East overall is reason for skepticism. However, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice's brief meeting last week with Syria's Foreign Minister and recent ginger re-engagement in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process are notable. As the summer wears on and the public's patience with the "last best chance" surge wears thin, perhaps the administration will reconsider, if it is not too late.

If it does not, $100 oil is a frighteningly real possibility.