IRA Investing: Mid-Term Still Looks Bullish

CF Industries is a fertilizer company. All of the stocks in this business have been very strong over the last several months, reflecting the improving outlook for plantings, especially corn. I believe it is clear that earnings will be good this year; in fact, first-quarter earnings were strong for this company.

The real question is whether or not this year represents peak earnings for the company. If so, even though this company sells at a very low enterprise value/EBITDA ratio of 6.6, it might not perform very well.

However, politicians can't seem to put out enough praise for ethanol and, in spite of the questionable benefits for overall energy usage, seem determined to continue to talk about it. Plantings could stay strong for several years, and that would certainly help the fertilizer business. At a minimum, the positive commentary should continue for the rest of this year, and there is potential for positive surprises in earnings.

Portfolio Performance

The performance of my IRA has pretty much mimicked the market this quarter. I view this as satisfactory, given the strong performance of the first quarter. Of course, I'll try to extend my lead going forward. (For a complete explanation of my investing method, please click here.)

Here's the current listing of the holdings in my IRA:

The Portfolio
Symbol	Name	Purchase Date	Cost	Price	Gain
Regular Holdings
ADPI	American Dental Partners	1/30/2007	$20.75	$24.84	19.71%
AHG	Apria Healthcare	11/16/2006	$24.42	$30.37	24.37%
AMP	Ameriprise Financial	12/18/2006	$55.09	$61.33	11.33%
AMSF	Amerisafe	12/18/2006	$14.18	$19.99	40.97%
BDX	Becton Dickinson	11/10/2006	$71.29	$79.78	11.91%
BKI	Buckeye Technologies	11/16/2006	$11.83	$13.93	17.75%
CALM	Cal-Maine Foods	4/16/2007	$13.30	$13.00	-2.26%
CF	CF Industries	5/3/2007	$40.57	$40.23	-0.84%
CGX	Consolidated Graphics	5/1/2007	$76.88	$78.40	1.98%
CHUX	O'Charley's	2/1/2007	$21.55	$21.86	1.44%
GIB	CGI Group	3/9/2007	$8.52	$9.88	15.96%
INMD	Integramed America	2/6/2007	$14.34	$13.85	-3.42%
KCI	Kinetic Concepts	2/6/2007	$49.75	$49.57	-0.36%
METH	Methode Electronics	3/8/2007	$12.93	$15.29	18.25%
NOOF	New Frontier Media	1/8/2007	$9.46	$8.86	-6.34%
QD	Quadramed	3/19/2007	$3.06	$3.11	1.63%
SCHL	Scholastic	1/3/2007	$36.23	$32.49	-10.32%
SHS	Sauer-Danfoss	10/27/2006	$26.63	$29.16	9.50%
SPY	S&P Depositary Receipts	3/12/2007	$143.59	$150.92	5.10%
TWIN	Twin Disc	4/16/2007	$45.97	$62.50	35.96%
WEL	Boots & Coots	3/22/2007	$2.25	$2.07	-8.00%
WRNC	Warnaco Group	3/14/2007	$26.99	$28.29	4.82%
One Month Screen
ABG	Asbury Automotive Group	3/16/2007	$27.93	$28.70	2.76%
NXST	Nexstar Broadcasting	3/16/2007	$8.38	$11.79	40.69%
TBSI	TBS International	4/16/2007	$13.25	$16.20	22.26%
TONS	Novamerican Steel	4/16/2007	$47.62	$49.34	3.61%
VAL	Valspar	4/16/2007	$27.48	$27.78	1.09%
Performance Results as of 5/4/2007			IRA	S&P 500
	Quarter to Date		5.5%	6.0%
	Year to Date		14.5%	6.6%
Source: TheAstuteInvestor.com

Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider American Dental Partners, Amerisafe, Boots & Coots, Buckeye Technologies, Cal-Maine Foods, IntegraMed America, New Frontier Media, Nexstar Broadcasting, Quadramed, TBSI International and Twin Disc to be small-cap stocks. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.