15 Reasons Stocks Should Be Falling

9. The subslime mess is dismissed, despite growing evidence that the credit contagion is spreading to motorcycle securitizations, automobiles and elsewhere. Mortgage credit losses are expected to eclipse the early 1990s experience.

10. REITs trade above intrinsic value, and dividend yields are at all-time lows relative to another new paradigm. Development projects are beginning to raise supply and have started to hurt regional supply/demand.

11. Trucking and airline companies' results are worse than expected, and forward guidance is reduced.

12. Banks' net interest margins are threatened by competition (and industry saturation) and an unfavorable yield curve as credit losses rise.

13. Leading indicators fall for three consecutive months, and the household and payroll survey of jobs throws more caution to the wind. (Manpower's Employment Outlook March Survey and lowered guidance at employment companies Kelly Services (KELYA Quote - Cramer on KELYA - Stock Picks), Monster Worldwide (MNST Quote - Cramer on MNST - Stock Picks) and Robert Half International (RHI Quote - Cramer on RHI - Stock Picks) confirm the trends in jobs.)

14. The popularity of the Republican administration hits new lows as the probability of a Democratic 2008 win increases, raising the specter of the politics of trade protectionism, a more powerful view toward antitrust and higher dividend and corporate tax rates.

15. Over there, speculation continues apace in emerging markets (especially of an Asian-kind). China becomes the epicenter of the world's speculation in equities.

Indeed just the opposite develops in the face of these headwinds. Shares move ever higher to the beat of the breathless enthusiasm of the business commentators (which can almost not be contained) and as Wall Street strategists routinely raise their S&P price targets to follow stock prices.

For now, the joke is on me as the market's momentum trumps any fundamental or rational consideration -- though justified as it might be -- as I do my misguided best to aid to the visibility and understanding of Mr. Market's machinations in my writings.

Well, today's a brand new day. And you know what? "I think this is the best opening missive I've ever done." And you know what? I deserve it! (Turning to the mirror.) Because I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and doggone it, people like me!

"And ... that's ... OK." (You got it, Stuart Smalley!)

Does Doug Kass ever get depressed by his own bearishness? Check out the answer..

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