15 Reasons Stocks Should Be Falling

05/10/07 - 02:56 PM EDT

Doug Kass

3. Other tech companies like Novellus (NVLS Quote - Cramer on NVLS - Stock Picks), Nokia (NOK Quote - Cramer on NOK - Stock Picks), SanDisk (SNDK Quote - Cramer on SNDK - Stock Picks), Flextronics (FLEX Quote - Cramer on FLEX - Stock Picks) and Sanmina (SANM Quote - Cramer on SANM - Stock Picks) disappointed. The much-heralded release of Vista has failed to meet expectations (and has led to a buildup in PC component parts). DRAM prices fall by nearly 70% to below cash production costs. Electronic Arts (ERTS Quote - Cramer on ERTS - Stock Picks), Best Buy (BBY Quote - Cramer on BBY - Stock Picks) and Circuit City (CC Quote - Cramer on CC - Stock Picks) guided lower, raising questions about the health of consumer electronics.

4. Multinationals offset end-market weakness in the U.S. by the effect of a weak U.S. dollar. More astonishingly, investors consider the foreign exchange gains as recurring.

5. The multiplier effect of the housing downturn hits many building materials companies like Mohawk Industries (MHK Quote - Cramer on MHK - Stock Picks), Home Depot (HD Quote - Cramer on HD - Stock Picks) and Graco (GGG Quote - Cramer on GGG - Stock Picks) whiff, but rumors of private-equity deals bail investors out. Housing forecasts are consistently lowered (even by the National Association of Realtors!).

6. The U.S. dollar trends lower and lower, and the likelihood of rising interest rates in Europe and in Asia suggests interest rate differentials will widen further (putting further pressure on our currency).

7. Wal-Mart (WMT Quote - Cramer on WMT - Stock Picks), Target (TGT Quote - Cramer on TGT - Stock Picks), Talbots (TLB Quote - Cramer on TLB - Stock Picks), Sears (SHLD Quote - Cramer on SHLD - Stock Picks) and others lower comp guidance as evidence of consumer weakness grows. This morning's retail comps are uniformly poor. The automobile industry continues its death spiral.

8. The plethora of mortgage resets -- the single most important factor pressing the U.S. consumer -- is dismissed. Mortgage equity withdrawals, the straw that has stirred the drink of consumption, slow to a crawl. Mortgage lending standards are tightened, serving to decimate the first-time homebuyer market.

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