15 Reasons Stocks Should Be Falling

 

3. Other tech companies like Novellus (NVLS Quote), Nokia (NOK Quote), SanDisk (SNDK Quote), Flextronics (FLEX Quote) and Sanmina (SANM Quote) disappointed. The much-heralded release of Vista has failed to meet expectations (and has led to a buildup in PC component parts). DRAM prices fall by nearly 70% to below cash production costs. Electronic Arts (ERTS Quote), Best Buy (BBY Quote) and Circuit City (CC Quote) guided lower, raising questions about the health of consumer electronics.

4. Multinationals offset end-market weakness in the U.S. by the effect of a weak U.S. dollar. More astonishingly, investors consider the foreign exchange gains as recurring.

5. The multiplier effect of the housing downturn hits many building materials companies like Mohawk Industries (MHK Quote), Home Depot (HD Quote) and Graco (GGG Quote) whiff, but rumors of private-equity deals bail investors out. Housing forecasts are consistently lowered (even by the National Association of Realtors!).

6. The U.S. dollar trends lower and lower, and the likelihood of rising interest rates in Europe and in Asia suggests interest rate differentials will widen further (putting further pressure on our currency).

7. Wal-Mart (WMT Quote), Target (TGT Quote), Talbots (TLB Quote), Sears (SHLD Quote) and others lower comp guidance as evidence of consumer weakness grows. This morning's retail comps are uniformly poor. The automobile industry continues its death spiral.

8. The plethora of mortgage resets -- the single most important factor pressing the U.S. consumer -- is dismissed. Mortgage equity withdrawals, the straw that has stirred the drink of consumption, slow to a crawl. Mortgage lending standards are tightened, serving to decimate the first-time homebuyer market.

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