Shoppers Still Spending

Retailers' sales reports Thursday won't be pretty.

On the heels of an incredibly strong March, major chain stores are projected to show an average same-store sales gain of just 0.4% for April, according to Thomson Financial. When you remove the struggling Wal-Mart (WMT Quote - Cramer on WMT - Stock Picks) from the equation, the figure rises to 1.6%.

But remember, strong same-store sales, or comps, in March were boosted by a shift in the Easter holiday, which drove shoppers to the stores earlier this year. Similarly, April's numbers will be hurt by the calendar. Investors should take a look at the combined months in order to gauge the health of the consumer and individual companies.

Retailers' combined Easter average is projected to show 3.2% growth, indicating the consumer is still out there spending -- regardless of gas prices, weather, lack of bees, pestilence, boils and whatever other plagues naysayers point out. The latest personal and disposable income figures showing 0.7% growth were better than expected and should buoy the sector.

Among the individual segments, the teen retailers are expected to struggle, especially when compared to March's especially strong comps. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF Quote - Cramer on ANF - Stock Picks) is predicted to post a 5.3% drop in same-store sales after a 7% comp rise in March. Aeropostale (AEO Quote - Cramer on AEO - Stock Picks), which had a stunning 15.9% March comp, is expected to go negative with a 2.1% decline, according to Thomson.

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