Dow Jones Shares Should Stand Tall

Shares of Dow Jones have edged backward since the stock throttled up more than 60% to a high of $58.47 on Tuesday, when Murdoch's offer was made public by CNBC. But even though the Bancroft family has signaled its opposition, the stock still stands around $55.25, a 52% premium to Monday's close and a clear sign that Wall Street is salivating for a deal.

Now that the board is on the record as taking no action, signs are emerging that the Bancrofts' opposition might hold. The family owns 82% of the Class B shares, which control 64.2% of the voting rights. If only 52% of the voting rights oppose the deal, that signals there could be dissension in the ranks in what the The Journal reports are the younger members of the family.

But The Journal also reported, citing unnamed sources, that the Ottaway family, which acquired a 6.2% stake in the company's class B shares when it sold its chain of community newspapers to Dow Jones in 1970, is firmly opposed to selling to Murdoch. That raises the level of opposition to at least 58% of the voting power.

So if the opposition stays firm, where are shares of Dow Jones headed? Down, but probably not all the way down.

While newspaper publishers have been shunned recently on Wall Street, shares of Dow Jones have largely held their ground, while its peers have collapsed. The stock is down 20% from its highs in early 2004, but New York Times (NYT Quote) lost half its value over that span while Gannett (GCI Quote) shed 30% of its value and McClatchy (MNI Quote) lost 56%.