Jon Markman
Editor's Note: Jon D. Markman writes a weekly column for CNBC on MSN Money that is republished here on TheStreet.com.
Gamblers, psychics, speculators and coin-flippers: Mark your calendars, one and all, for a date likely to be the most spectacular one-day investment event in the first half of 2007. On May 15, a week and a half from today, years of scientific research, venture investment, hope and prayer will result in an up-or-down vote from federal drug regulators on a prostate-cancer therapy developed by Dendreon(DNDN Quote - Cramer on DNDN - Stock Picks), a small Seattle biotech company. If the answer is yes, Dendreon can begin marketing a drug that could bring in as much as $1 billion a year, and the company's shares will soar. If the answer is no, then the company will be sent back to the drawing board with a big, smokin' hole in its pocket and shares down 90%. Hero or goat, in the blink of an eye. The binary nature of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration decision -- heads you win, tails you die -- is typical of the crazy world of biotechnology, a market sector more suitable for Las Vegas than for Wall Street. The odds of winning at roulette are probably better than the odds of winning with biotech companies. It's the lure of the quick, gigantic buck that lures folks into both.
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