Technical Analysis

Short Trader: Choosing a Wise Entry

 

So we've got alternative entries here. First, if the stock bounces back to test the 40-week moving average, a short entry at about $49.25 would be prudent because a buy-stop could be placed just above that level -- say, around $51.05. That is minimal risk for shorting into an advance.

Alternatively, a drop below the recent low of $42.44 would signal the continuation of the current decline. So a short entry at around $42.35 could be protected by a buy-stop at about $44.10.

Either way, the risk is less than 5%.

I'd suggest an initial downside target on this short at about $35. I may adjust that going forward, but that seems to define the setup's risk-reward profile adequately.

Updates on Previous Picks

  • DRS Technologies (DRS) is finding support at $50, but has not yet reversed, so this short trade is still in play. The entry was at $51.25, and the buy-stop remains at $52.20. Shares of DRS were recently trading at $50.98.
  • DuPont (DD): The entry price for this one was $50.10, and the adjusted stop is at $51.05. The stock traded very near the stop level earlier this morning and appears to be firming up. If the stock prints at $51.05, this trade will be closed. Shares were recently trading at $50.40.
  • Intevac (IVAC): This short idea offered the entry at $25 in mid-April and hit the target of $20 on Monday. So it's closed out for a nice gain.
  • Shares of New York Times (NYT) hit the entry of $24.50 on Monday. But this short setup also had a tight stop of $25.50, which was triggered later that day.

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At the time of publication, Fitzpatrick held no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Dan Fitzpatrick is the publisher of StockMarketMentor.com, an advisory newsletter and educational forum dedicated to teaching effective risk management and trading methodologies to aspiring traders and investors. He is a former hedge fund manager and a member of the Market Technicians Association, and he now trades from his home in San Diego, Calif. While Fitzpatrick holds various securities licenses, he does not give recommendations to buy or sell stocks. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. He appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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