No Housing Bottom Yet

04/30/07 - 04:11 PM EDT

Tracy Byrnes

But residential loans are not the only culprit. Construction and development loans were up 144.1% to $565 billion, according to the FDIC. But because projects are not being completed and new ones are not happening, many construction loans are defaulting as well.

And that really hits home because it's the local banks that made those loans to the local contractors. "A year ago, I warned about the shabby lending standards of the community banks over the past five years and how that could have many of those banks falling like dominoes," says Richard Suttmeier, a RealMoney.com contributor and chief strategist at rightside.com

We Look Like Japan

Regardless of the dismal stats, many argue that as long as employment stays strong, everything will be just fine. That's definitely something Marcia Brady would say.

But not when home prices were rising much faster than our paychecks.

Case in point -- look at Japan's recent housing boom/bust.

"Japan is the classic case study because the country had high employment through its housing boom and things came crashing down," says Mark Grinis, a partner at Ernst & Young's real estate, hospitality and construction group.

There are a lot of parallels between our housing boom and Japan's. For nearly a decade, beginning in 1981, Japan's housing market experienced years of rapid price appreciation.

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