Feuerstein's Biotech Mailbag

Most recently, Antigenics released positive data from a phase I/II study of Oncophage in brain tumor patients, but these results are early.

I understand the interest in Antigenics, but at this point, Oncophage is not ready for prime time.

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Ben S. writes, "Adam, loved the Hepatitis C landscape article. In addition to figuring out who the market share winners will be, there seems to be quite a range in estimates of how big the Hep C market itself will ultimately be by 2010 and beyond. I've heard estimates from $5 billion to $10 billion. My understanding is that because of the virus' long incubation period, some doctors fear the disease may be very underdiagnosed. What kind of consensus on this topic do you sense out there?"

Great question, Ben. I think it's fair to say that the consensus on the size of the hepatitis C market is that it's quite large, as you indicated.

The World Health Organization estimates that 180 million people worldwide are infected with hepatitis C, 130 million of whom have chronic disease and are at risk of developing liver cirrhosis and/or liver cancer. Approximately 3 million to 4 million people are newly infected each year, according to the WHO.

Investors are focused more on the developed world, where all the new, groundbreaking hepatitis C drugs like Vertex Pharmaceuticals'(VRTX) telaprevir will be used. (That's a terrible statement, but sadly true.) In the U.S., the WHO estimates just under 4 million cases of hepatitis C infection, of which 70%, or 2.8 million, are chronically infected and candidates for treatment.