Two Winners on Housing's Rise or Fall

This column was originally published on RealMoney on April 3 at 12:26 p.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.

If you sit down with Robert Niblock, who runs Lowe's(LOW Quote), he would tell you that it really doesn't matter if homes sell or not. If they don't, the people who currently live in them remodel. If they do, the new people remodel. It is a win either way.

But the truth has never mattered. People will sell Lowe's when housing is "bad," meaning that houses aren't selling and they buy it when housing's moving.

My take is that Lowe's is good, but the levered way to play this is Sears(SHLD Quote). I say that because Sears has made great strides in clothing but not in housing-related, so if housing pops, you've got a real horse on your hands.

People want to buy Home Depot(HD Quote) off this but I say, way too early. You don't want to be involved with a situation where the new management hasn't gotten its arms around the stores yet.

Anyway, I like this group on any lift because it has been pounded. I pulled up with Bob Niblock when Lowe's was at $34 and it was business as usual. Now, a couple of points lower and I think you'll have a good one. But Sears should be a great one, particularly if it takes out the high because there are lots of technicians who home in on the stock.

Random musings: Looks like Anthony Noto's call on Google(GOOG Quote) was an impact one. I like that, 'cause he's real good.