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I believe the U.S. economy will
While fundamentals are clearly deteriorating, the technicals on the major equity averages are showing some negative divergences. However, they're not yet weak enough to confirm the bear market based on pure technical analysis.
Complacency vs. Wishful ThinkingThe major equity averages turned in mixed performances for the first quarter, but only the Dow industrials and the semiconductors ended the quarter lower. During the quarter, several indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Dow Jones Utilities Average, set new all-time highs. However, the increased volatility, which we've seen since I made my
|Market||Current Price||% Gain or Loss||2006 Close||2007 First Half High||Percent Off High||2007 First Half Low|
First, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.9% in the first quarter of this year and fell 3.5% from its all-time high of 12,796 set on Feb. 20. The Dow is between my new quarterly pivot at 12,312 and my semiannual pivot at 12,492. With declining weekly momentum, a weekly close below 12,312 is more likely than a weekly close above 12,492. On the daily chart, you can see that the Dow is below its 50-day simple moving average at 12,454, which indicates risk to the 200-day simple moving average at 11,900.
|Dow Jones Industrial Average
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