Dendreon Runs to Daylight

I posted a column a couple of weeks ago (with additional comments here) that laid out my best and current thinking on Provenge sales projections for the U.S. (peak sales about $1 billion) and how that translated into a fair value for Dendreon of around $27.

I don't see any reason now to change my numbers. Just remember: My forecasts hinged on Provenge approval, so no, I didn't expect the stock to get there Friday.

Dendreon doubters were fazed Thursday, but they're not going away. And to be perfectly honest, their skepticism deserves consideration. So, while I've given you my view on what Dendreon shares are worth, I have no idea if, when or how long it might take to get there.

But back to Thursday's panel vote: in a word, crazy! To be honest, I didn't think it was looking good for Dendreon as the panel members began chewing over the FDA's penultimate efficacy question: "Does the submitted data establish the efficacy of [Provenge] in the intended population?"

Oncologists Maha Hussain and Howard Scher immediately took up the mantle of conservative data analysis and strict biostatistical methods, arguing that the Provenge data weren't strong enough to justify a yes vote. Hussain, in particular, seemed very persuasive, and I thought she would convince many other panel members to also vote no.