Coming Week: Data Overdrive

Monthly nonfarm payrolls have been subject to sizeable revisions of late, and there's no reason to expect that to change this time around. For March, employers probably added 120,000 workers, while the unemployment rate likely crept up to 4.6% from 4.5%. In February, the government said 97,000 jobs were created.

Also due are reports on wholesale inventories and consumer credit.

Taken together, the slew of economic information will provide substantial material for those of us trying to figure out what it all means for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. The central bank hasn't altered its target fed funds rate, currently at 5.25%, for six meetings going back to last June.

That doesn't mean policymakers have necessarily been working to remove all doubt about their intentions.

When they concluded a two-day meeting March 21, they omitted language from their past remarks that the "extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed" will depend on economic data. Stocks soared, because the absence of the phrase bolstered the hopes of investors who want to see a rate cut some time this year.

Still, the Fed found room to provide both cautious comments about the housing market and to warn that inflation has the potential to linger as a concern.

"Recent indicators have been mixed and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing," the Fed said at the time. "Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters."

Despite softening its tone on rates, the Fed noted that readings on core inflation "have been somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures."

With so much data in hand from last week and due during the coming week, traders can be forgiven if they find themselves deciding to keep up the guesswork.

Of course, it isn't all about the economy in the short week. Considering that the first quarter has now wrapped up, investors will have to stay on guard for the profit and sales warnings that are inevitable.

The busiest time for corporate profit reports is still a couple of weeks away, with the season unofficially beginning with Dow component Alcoa (AA Quote) on April 10. But next week is expected to feature results from consumer-electronics sellers Best Buy (BBY Quote) and Circuit City (CC Quote), along with agricultural concern Monsanto (MON Quote) and chip outfit Micron (MU Quote).

That's a lot to digest in just four days. Come ready to dig in.

1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish Bearish Neutral 2 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move up in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities 3 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move down in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities View the results without voting