Save Your (Family) Dollars

Among Dollar General, Big Lots (BIG), Tuesday Morning (TUES), Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Fred's (FRED), Family Dollar has the slowest projected long-term growth rate. It stands at 11.5%, compared with 13.2% for the group.

Family Dollar's stock currently trades around $29, and I'd like to see it fall to the $24 to $25 range before I'd be interested. It would put the stock at a discount to its peers on a P/E-to-growth metric and would give investors a better buffer against the strategy risk.

Keep in mind, I do believe Family Dollar's approach to growth is the right one, and it appears to be working. But serving a customer base that has to think about nearly every dollar it spends carries significant risk on both a macro and company level.

From a technical perspective, $23 to $24 is an area of support that would also provide some peace of mind that the downside is somewhat limited.

Family Dollar is moving in the right direction. But as is true in many situations, I like the company but not the stock right now. Give it to me cheaper, and I'm willing to take a shot.

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