Getting Your Portfolio in Better Shape, Part 2

Stock quotes in this article: ABN , DVN , APA , BRNC , KOMG , NTE , VSH  

What I Bought

  • Bronco Drilling (BRNC Quote): Seems to be a cheap land driller and replaces some of the exposure I lost selling Apache and Devon.
  • Komag (KOMG Quote), Nam Tai Electronics (NTE Quote) and Vishay Intertechnology (VSH Quote): Cheap technology stocks that are near the beginning of the technology food chain. The businesses are more stable than those who buy their products.
  • Summary

    Here are the key ideas:

    1. Systematically rank your portfolios for valuation, neglect (out of favor), and earnings quality (NOA).
    2. Do swap trades to force improvement in your portfolio.
    3. Make swap trades in bunches, and not too many of them at a time, to avoid overtrading. Good ideas take time to work out.
    4. Focus on industry selection, because it is 60% of the game.
    5. Think about how each company that you add and delete will affect the portfolio on the whole.

    If you do these things consistently, your portfolio will stay fresh, you will not overtrade and you will end up with a good balance of cheapness and growth potential due to industry selection. Individual company risk gets reduced by a focus on balance sheet quality and NOA. This is how I avoid risk, which enhances return.

    Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider Lithia Motors, Optimal Group, P.A.M. Transportation, Spectrum Brands, National Coal, Home Solutions of America and Bronco Drilling to be small-cap stocks. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.

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    At the time of publication, Merkel and/or his fund was long Vishay Intertechnology, Komag, Nam Tai Electronics, Bronco Drilling, Barclays, Lithia Motors, Sonic Automotive, Dow Chemical, Lyondell Chemical, St. Joe Company, Sappi, SPX Corp, Sara Lee, DTE Energy, Premium Standard Farms, YRC Worldwide, Tsakos Energy Navigation and Allstate, though positions may change at any time.

    David J. Merkel, CFA, FSA, is a senior investment analyst at Hovde Capital responsible for analysis and valuation of investment opportunities for the FIP funds, particularly of companies in the insurance industry. Previously, he managed corporate bonds for Dwight Asset Management. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While Merkel cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

    Analyst Certification: All of the views expressed in the report accurately reflect the personal views of the research analyst about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the compensation of the research analyst named herein was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in this report.

    Merkel is employed by Hovde Capital Advisors LLC (the "firm"), a registered investment advisor with its principal office located in Washington, D.C. The Firm and/or its affiliates have or may have a long or short position or holding in the securities, options on securities, or other related investments of the issuers mentioned herein.





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