Coming Week: Enduring Issues

Aside from any further drama in the Middle East and/or oil prices, the markets will likely maintain their fixation on housing.

"The housing market remains the central front in the debate over economic weakness," write Bank of America economists Peter Kretzmer and Mickey Levy. "Indeed, another significant leg down in home sales, following a tentative stabilization, would likely be sufficient to set the stage for Fed easing, as it would imply further steep declines in residential construction, extending the duration of the economy's current below-trend growth."

Monday brings new-home sales data for February, while homebuilder Lennar (LEN Quote) reports earnings on Tuesday.

New-home sales data are expected to show 6% growth, although Friday's upside surprise in existing-home sales for the month may have upped the ante for what will constitute a "strong" report. Conversely, there's little hope for anything positive out of Lennar, given forecasts for a 70% decline in year-over-year earnings and recent commentary from other homebuilders.

Tuesday also brings March consumer confidence data, from which a "moderate decline" is expected given "the downturn in the stock market [in late February-early March] and increases in initial unemployment claims and gasoline prices," according to Kretzmer and Levy. The consensus is for a drop to 109 from February's 112.5; an upside or downside surprise could move the markets, given the importance of consumer confidence (and hence spending) to the overall economy.