Cramer: No Real Wins in Satellite Radio

This column was originally published on RealMoney on March 21 at 12:11 p.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.

What happens if the government doesn't let Sirius(SIRI Quote) merge with XM Satellite(XMSR Quote)?

I believe the two will continue to battle it out until one guy's belly-up.

Whoever is left standing will then be able to raise rates and cut what it pays for talent. It will be a huge win for the one left standing, even if by then the stock is appreciably lower from the bleed-out. And it will be a huge loser for the consumer.

As Mel Karmazin pushes on his tour to get this deal done, I keep wondering whether he should be arguing this case. It's a devastating case to make when it comes to current shareholders of both companies. It can hurt XM more than Sirius, drive it lower, because in a lot of ways XM is doing worse than Sirius.

But ultimately it's a heck of a better case than the promises that he has made to keep prices stable, which no one really believes.

This is a business with ultra-high barriers to entry and high costs that no one else really wants to get into. Everyone who liked it initially has been pancaked, and everyone who wants it now can't buy it with the uncertainty.

Yet it continues to hold a fascination for the public that is exceeded only by the public's endless unrequited love affair with tech.

Until you know this deal is going through, you can't own the stock. If it doesn't go through, you have two goners.

But you have the end result of the government's meddling in what would be a better deal than the consumers will ultimately get.

Random musings: Lots of people in Texas were asking me how I could be so negative on Hercules Offshore(HERO Quote) now that it's getting Todco(THE Quote). Understand that I have been predicting willy-nilly takeovers in the sector that would create better pricing. But I am not going to recommend the acquirer of a company when 1) the arbitrage pressure is great against the stock and 2) there is dreaded Gulf drilling exposure, when Transocean(RIG Quote) and GlobalSantaFe(GSF Quote) don't have it. ... Linens 'N Things buyout woes for Apollo make a logical private-equity buyout of Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY Quote) -- the hope of lots of shareholders -- less likely. ... AT&T(T Quote) has become a go-to stock for those who think the Fed's going to push us into a recession. Good defensive name, although I like Heinz(HNZ Quote) better. ... Fortress(FIG Quote) is run by a terrific guy from Merrill who really understands fixed-income, particularly mortgage backs. Look for him to start taking advantage of the sickened companies in the industry.