Alcoa Can Wait
This column was originally published on RealMoney on March 16 at 11 a.m. ET. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.
One thing about trading, it's never dull! Just when it seemed like the low volatility would lull everyone to sleep, the VIX nearly doubled in a couple of weeks, and all those stocks that were feeling the love in February are now being taken out and shot. But what's the real problem here? I believe it's not so much the volatility but what it represents: change. Volatility certainly brings challenges along with opportunity. But the biggest challenge for most traders is pretty straightforward: When the market changes, you have to change with it. But that's easier said than done, because the very things we need to change are the weaknesses that a trending market forgives. When the market was trending nicely, you had time to act, even if your actions were undisciplined. When you saw a stock moving higher, you could watch it, think about it and maybe buy just a little. Then when the stock pulled back, you could hesitate again. But either way, a strong market would bail you out even if you were too slow on the trigger. This highly volatile market exposes those weaknesses. Now, you don't have a lot of time to think, because that puts you way behind the move. The market falls so fast now that if you hesitate, you'll be selling just as the shorts are pivoting and going long. And if you aren't sure of the rally and wait for a little more evidence, you'll wind up buying stock from the early birds who are taking profits.
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