Kass: Fed Is No Savior in Subprime Slide

 

As we move into the summer or fall (at the latest), there will be better visibility of the subprime problems. By that time, it will be abundantly clear to even the bulls that an inventory-swollen housing market is back on the sick bed as the two most important marginal buyers -- the first time and trade-up buyers -- have lost access to home-financing. And, by then, the multiplier effect of the housing downturn should be in full force, causing the economy to sputter and for corporate profit expectations to fall to more realistic levels.

The upheaval in the subprime mortgage industry is in its middle stages, but the broad impact on the U.S. economy is in its infancy. To paraphrase, Frankenstein's Dr. Waldman, the credit markets and Wall Street have created a monster -- subprime -- and it will destroy the economy.

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Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Short Offshore Fund, Ltd. Until 1996, he was senior portfolio manager at Omega Advisors, a $4 billion investment partnership. Before that he was executive senior vice president and director of institutional equities of First Albany Corporation and JW Charles/CSG. He also was a General Partner of Glickenhaus & Co., and held various positions with Putnam Management and Kidder, Peabody. Kass received his bachelor's from Alfred University, and received a master's of business administration in finance from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School in 1972. He co-authored "Citibank: The Ralph Nader Report" with Nader and the Center for the Study of Responsive Law and currently serves as a guest host on CNBC's "Squawk Box."

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