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Shorts' Dirty Dozen

Originally published on 3/14/2007 at 9:17 a.m.

You asked for it. You asked for what some would regard as irresponsible, but others would describe as prudent. You asked for the Dirty Dozen that the shorts are operating on, and here they are:

  1. IndyMac(NDE Quote)
  2. CharterMac(CHC Quote)
  3. Friedman Billings(FBR Quote)
  4. Fremont General(FMT Quote)
  5. Redwoods Trust(RWT Quote)
  6. Newcastle Investment(NCT Quote)
  7. American Home Mortgage(AHM Quote)
  8. Gramercy(GKK Quote)
  9. RAIT(RAS Quote)
  10. Accredited(LEND Quote)
  11. Thornburg Mortgage(TMA Quote)
  12. CapitalSource(CSE Quote)

Notice that I'm not including NovaStar(NFI Quote), which is on its deathbed. I am also not including ECC Capital(ECR Quote), which is also, to me, a goner.

Accredited is still alive, but I believe not for long, at least in this current form.

I do not believe that Washington Mutual(WM Quote) or Countrywide(CFC Quote) is in trouble, although both are not done going down. H&R Block(HRB Quote) is in trouble, but it's been crummy for so long, I guess it doesn't matter. I do believe that GMAC is still a bleeding hole but I would no more short GM(GM Quote) than GE(GE Quote) off this stuff, although a lot of others will.

Do I think that all of the Dirty Dozen will go out of business? That's not the question. I'm saying that these are the shorted stocks. If you think that some of them have liquidity problems, then you short them to zero. If you think that they don't, wait a week and buy them.

Now, most important: I would not own a single one of these myself.

I feel badly about including some of these. RAIT is run by Betsy Cohen, an old friend from Philadelphia. The IndyMac people are adamant that they're not in trouble, but so were the Accredited people, and I believed in that. But this is what shorts are gunning on, so why not tell people?

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