PC Makers Hedge on Vista Effect

What's in the Box

For Falcon Northwest's customers, the lack of a pressing need for a Vista PC relates to the fact that most video games don't yet support Vista's new DirectX 10 technology, which promises to make computer graphics more lifelike.

Mainstream PC buyers have other reasons to hold off, including concerns about incompatibility with the drivers that control peripherals such as printers, security holes and the inevitable bugs. Most of these are likely to be resolved in the coming months.

And while Microsoft is spending hundreds of millions of dollars on marketing Vista, it's not clear that the message, which focuses on Vista's snazzy new interface, is resonating with consumers.

"I don't think people know what they're getting with Vista besides a cool new look," says Randy Copeland, CEO of Velocity Micro, which sells PCs through Best Buy (BBY Quote) stores as well as directly.

Nonetheless, Copeland says he's seeing strong interest for Vista among his customers, estimating that 95% of the PCs the company ships now feature Vista. Though he expects a better-than-seasonal first quarter, he says that unit shipments have been growing at a 200% clip in recent years, anyway, making it difficult to know how much credit Vista deserves.

A look at past transitions reveals no clear correlation between the introduction of a new operating system and PC sales. In the first quarter that Windows 95 was available, worldwide PC sales grew 27.9% year over year, according to Gartner. But PC sales were up 27% in the two quarters before Windows 95 arrived, as well.