Bouncing Stocks Face Hurdle

A print of 50,000 new jobs would not "roil the markets," because recent volatility in the report has led traders to price in a wide margin of error, says Diamond.

"Below [50,000], and the fear of a slowing economy would put massive downside pressure on the dollar and could weaken stocks sharply and even widen credit spreads," says Diamond.

Wednesday's ADP National Employment Report showed that 57,000 jobs were added in February. The report has recently been improved but thus far has a relatively weak track record for correlating to initial payrolls estimates.

Perhaps the big question mark for the jobs report is the manufacturing sector, which continues to lose ground, particularly in certain regions.

While the Federal Reserve said in its beige-book report Wednesday that "manufacturing activity was steady or expanding in most districts," the depression-addled state of Michigan stands out like a sore thumb.

The Detroit Free Press reported Thursday that Michigan still has the highest unemployment rate in the country -- at 6.9%. Wednesday the paper reported that workers asked Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm to declare an economic state of emergency, and the paper also noted a surge in foreclosed homes up for auction.

The national unemployment rate is 4.6% but is expected to tick up to 4.7% as of Friday morning's report of February, according to consensus estimates.

After peaking in 1998, manufacturing employment has slid 20%, says Moody's Lonski. "Make no mistake, manufacturing jobs will continue to leave the United States to cheaper countries abroad."

So while Mom may be proud today, the more impressive test to pass comes tomorrow.