Can you give me a rough idea of what happens to Dendreon's stock either way after March 29?
First, don't forget that the FDA will release briefing documents -- its review of the Provenge data and questions for the advisory panel -- on March 27. That's two days before the panel convenes. Expect some volatility in Dendreon's stock around that.
If the advisory panel rejects Provenge this time around, Dendreon's $4-plus stock gets cut in half easily. The company has a bit more than $1 a share in cash.
If the advisory panel is positive, Dendreon zooms. This will probably sound very conservative, but it's not hard to get to $500 million in sales for Provenge on its initial approval. Slap a five times sales multiple on that and discount it any way you want, because it doesn't matter -- Dendreon's current $280 million-plus market cap will be way undervalued.