Toll Founders Rang Register's High Notes

So when the brothers behind it start dumping stock, it tells you something. Who knows the housing market better than Bruce and Robert Toll?

Last week, as the National Association of Realtors was putting the best face on the continuing housing slump, one number in its latest survey stuck out like a Beverly Hills villa in the Bronx: The number of new homes that are sitting on the market unsold has jumped 47% from a year ago.

Housing is a slow-moving consumer good. It takes years to buy the land, get the permits, build the home and make the sale. So following average sales-price data may not tell you what is coming next.

In the last Toll Brothers fiscal year, revenue rose 6% and completions fell by 2%, which gave plenty of ammunition for the sunshine crowd on Wall Street. But contracts on the books at the Oct. 31 year end plunged 41% -- and the backlog of new orders was down 27%. Should these be comparable?

The best forward-looking indicator of all may well be insider stock sales by the people who know the housing industry best.