Buffett Says to Smile on Pepsi

Stock quotes in this article: PEP , KO  

The company also has an acceptable amount of debt. Earnings are more than double debt, which means the company could pay off its debt within about six months if it wanted to. That's mighty impressive.

The strategy likes companies with an average return on equity of at least 15%; PepsiCo's average over the last 10 years is nearly double this at 29.2%. The strategy also wants ROE for the last three years to be above 15%, and in PepsiCo's case, it has been 31.1%.

Average return on total capital over the last 10 years is also nearly double the strategy's minimum (22.5% for PepsiCo vs. the strategy's 12% minimum). The company also earns kudos for having a positive free cash flow per share. Management gets accolades because it has earned shareholders 20.6% a year on earnings retained over the past 10 years.

All of these figures say that PepsiCo is performing well financially. The final step is to determine if the stock's price is low enough to generate a decent return to investors. The strategy has two different approaches to projecting the rate of future stock appreciation. One calculates the rate of return and compares it to the long-term Treasury yield, while the second calculates future EPS. The two approaches are then averaged, and the result needs to be about 15% a year or more to be acceptable. PepsiCo's expected rate of return is 14.9%, which is just fine.

The Lynch Strategy

As I mentioned earlier, the Lynch strategy also thinks PepsiCo should wet your investment whistle. With growth of 18.94%, PepsiCo is a "true stalwart," meaning its growth falls within the 10% to 19% range. The company's yield-adjusted P/E/G ratio (P/E relative to growth) is an acceptable 0.90 (1.0 is the maximum allowed). And the company's debt, as measured as a percentage of equity, is a nice 18.38%. These are among the major variables the Lynch strategy looks for when deciding which true stalwarts to recommend.

Buffett may have extolled Coke's virtues for many years, but today he should be paying more attention to PepsiCo. The company is performing extremely well, its stock is reasonably priced and its snacks ... well, as it has been long known, you can't eat just one.

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At the time of publication, Reese and his clients were long Pepsi, although holdings can change at any time.

John P. Reese is founder and CEO of Validea.com, an investment research firm, and Validea Capital Management, an asset management firm serving affluent investors and companies. He is also co-author of the best-selling book, The Market Gurus: Stock Investing Strategies You Can Use From Wall Street's Best. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Reese appreciates your feedback. Click here to send him an email.

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