Coming Week: Test of Nerves

Other international events next week include Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's visit to Japan, South Korea and China.

"I'm sure it will have some symbolic importance," Greg Valliere, director of Washington research firm Stanford Financial Group, said of Paulson's Asia trip. "I'm sure he'll push [China] to do more on currencies and may talk about capital controls. Beyond that, it's inconceivable considering the tensions right now he'd do anything more provocative."

Similarly, Valliere would be "surprised if he did or said anything provocative" in Japan either, noting Paulson has consistently refuted complaints the Japanese are manipulating their currency -- a claim undermined by last week's sharp yen rally.

Assuming Paulson does have a calming influence on Asian markets (a big assumption, to be sure), traders' attention will focus on U.S. economic news.

Thursday's surprisingly strong ISM report brought relief to investors worried about a recession in the manufacturing sector. But with the services sector accounting for approximately 85% of the U.S. economy, the nonmanufacturing ISM "doesn't get its due in the economic indicator pecking order," write Koster and Stephansen.

The Credit Suisse economists forecast a reading of 57 for February's report, down from 59 in January but "still a healthy level" and "generally consistent with real GDP growth of about 3%."

Friday's February jobs report is the single biggest event on the calendar. The consensus is for nonfarm payroll growth of 100,000, an average hourly earnings increase of 0.3% and an unemployment rate unchanged at 4.6%.